the high price Romney pays for his aggressively negative campaigning—blogosphere blogbuzz suggests movement away from both Gov. Huckabee AND the hapless candidate from MA, Romney

January 2, 2008 in 2008, argument, campaign communications, campaign management, conservatism, election 2008, GOP, incompetence, Iowa, media, mitt romney, republicans, rhetoric, romney, strategy, stupidity, the dark soul of Mitt Romney, triumph of unreason
Tags: advertising, ambivalence, blogbuzz, blogging, blogs, ennui, negative, negative attacks, negative campaigning, negativity, new media, political blogs, ROI, wonkokevin, wonkosphere

“The conservative Wonkosphere continued to focus most of its attention on Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, the two front-runners in the upcoming Iowa caucus. Both are kind of hobbling into the finish line though–most of the attention to both of them is strongly negative, and this negativity has gone on for the last 3 weeks,” writes WonkoKevin for the WonkoBlog in a post titled Ennui: Conservative bloggers increase their negative focus on Huckabee and Romney

… IF we assume that conservative bloggers yesterday are of similar sentiment to conservative voters in Iowa, then we might predict low turnout, which helps Huckabee, probably helps Paul challenge for third place … etc.

Pass in review. What happens when your own negatives are high and you go negative? You implode.

Rasmussen Reports: Romney has the least core support, and the most core opposition of all the leading candidates, Republican or Democrat—these findings predict the sudden and fierce backlash against Romney’s negative attacks on other candidates

This explains Romney’s sudden and wild over-spending—on top of his earlier over-spending—in Iowa. He needs to compensate for the collapse of his own support. Evidence: Romney’s ROI for his every campaign dollar continues to plummet; he spends wildly, he spends more and more, yet his numbers are static.

Romney’s Kevin Madden “flabbergasted” at Team Romney’s helplessness against under-funded and un-organized Gov. Huckabee—Romney loses control of his spending says Carr—more on Romney’s fantastically low ROI for his every campaign dollar

yours &c.
dr. g.d.

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December frontrunner blogosphere buzzshare trends turn perilous for a hapless and helpless Team Romney

January 1, 2008 in 2008, campaign communications, campaign communiques, campaign management, conservatism, election 2008, GOP, media, mitt romney, polls, republicans, rhetoric, romney, strategy, stupidity, the dark soul of Mitt Romney, triumph of unreason
Tags: blogging, blogosphere, buzzshare, fake romney blogs, new media, political blogs, politics, wonkosphere, wonkosteve

… “Much more so than the Democrats, the Republican share numbers are showing convergence,” writes WonkoSteve in a WonkoBlog post titled December Frontrunner Trends by Party

Romey, though volatile, is keeping a more or less level trend line, whereas Huckabee is coming down somewhat. McCain shows the biggest surprise here, seeming to have jumped up 10% to a new level following Christmas Day. Could the Bhutto assassination have focused the conservative sphere on his foreign policy credentials? …

[Please go to wonkosphere and gape in wonder at the data displays]

… The tone numbers are slightly more interesting for the Republicans. They have obviously converged too, but this is mostly from a decline for Huckabee. Interestingly, conservative tone fell farther after the Bhutto assassination and has yet to recover the pre-Christmas levels.

Based on these numbers I would be most worried if I were Romney … etc.

Wonkosphere’s latest findings as of this writing, Dec 31 07:00 MST: Romney’s buzzshare has plateaued after days of rising, but the tone of those discussing Romney continues to trend down, i.e. to become more negative relative to the general buzzshare for the other candidates.

yours &c.
dr. g.d.

P.S. Also see:

• the Romneybust is coming!—the Romneybust is coming!—DesMoines Register poll: Gov. Huckabee still leads Romney by as many points as the last poll taken in late November—more on Romney’s fantastically low ROI for his every campaign dollar
• wonkosphere: Dec 30 23:00 MST, Romney’s blogosphere buzzshare more negative than norm, and trending down as we slide toward Iowa