Posts Tagged ‘jim geraghty’
[…] “Apparently the word is going around Team Romney that McCain will need 77 percent of the delegates remaining to win,” writes Romney sycophant Jim Geraghty in an NRO Campaign Spot blog burst titled Romney Fighting All The Way To The Convention?
(I’m pretty sure that’s wrong, if the numbers 720-256-194 are accurate. And if McCain, the guy in the 600-700s needs to win an extremely high percentage, doesn’t Romney, the guy in the 200s, have to win an even higher percentage?)
However, if Romney stays in, it’s very plausible to see a scenario in which he denies McCain the nomination on a straight delegate victory. This would result in some really, really rough coverage and criticism. I’m hearing some fans of Mitt talk about doing something like this to “keep McCain honest” and to broker concessions in St. Paul.
We’ll see. If the sense is that his campaign isn’t being run to win, but being run to make a point, I think you’ll see his support in subsequent states drop … I’m not sure the Romney campaign was built to be a protest candidacy […]
Um, we’re not so sure either. A protest candidate? Romney?
[…] “Al Cardenas, a member of Mr. Romney’s national finance team and his Florida chairman, said the campaign could still achieve certain goals, including pushing a conservative agenda, while hoping for the outside possibility of winning the nomination,” writes Michael Luo in a NYT article titled Losses Aside, Romney Puts Convention on Calendar
“You’ve got a chance to win the nomination based on either getting the required number of delegates in the first round,” Mr. Cardenas said, “or having a campaign that results in no one have the required number of delegates in the first round, which is maybe a more tangible goal.”
Mr. Romney’s advisers had said that if he reached only 300 delegates by Tuesday, a threshold he fell short of, he would essentially have to win every remaining contest, often by large margins because most of them allocate delegates proportionally.
Charlie Black, a senior strategist for Mr. McCain, put out a strategy memorandum on Wednesday that made a similar argument. McCain advisers said that, by conservative estimates, they expected to wrap up the nomination by early March.
“I will not say, in order to stay consistent with my boss’s superstition, which I share, that it’s impossible for these guys to get nominated,” said Mr. Black, referring to Mr. Romney and Mike Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, “but it is virtually impossible just based on the arithmetic of the matter.”
But Mr. Romney’s advisers have been discussing three categories of delegates: those that have been already been awarded and bound to a candidate; those that have been promised but are not technically bound; and those that have not yet been allocated.
The goal would be to continue to battle, hoping that Mr. Romney starts to sweep up states, and then arrive at the convention with no clear winner and the momentum to wrest some of those promised but not officially bound delegates into his column.
Mr. Romney appeared to allude to this possibility in his speech on Tuesday night, promising to take the Republican race “all the way to the convention” […]
The emphases are ours, all ours.
We harp more on this string here:
“‘Tim Russert said on MSNBC today that Mitt Romney ‘could buy the (GOP) nomination,'” writes Doug Perry in an Elections blog post for the Oregonian titled Romney Trying to ‘Buy’ Nomination While Clinton Turns to Delegate-Free Sunshine State
How? He’s got the money and John McCain doesn’t. And because, unlike the weeks of retail politics required of candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, Florida and Super-Duper Tuesday are largely about TV ads.
This all bodes well for the former Massachusetts governor, who is spending millions of his own dollars on this presidential quest. On the stump and at coffeeklatsches, Romney is clearly a robot. A likeable one, sure, but who can trust robots? […]
We discuss and criticize the Russert “Romney can now buy the nomination” fixed point here:
The Russert’s “Romney can now buy the nomination” fixed point is confirmed by Romney’s hugely expensive loss in Louisiana, a contest where F2F and retail politics were decisive (a contest that Romney could not buy), and a contest in which Romney spent the most to get the least ROI.
[…] In addition to the uncommitted delegates and McCain and Paul supporters, Governor Mitt Romney appears to have won a handful of state convention delegates,” writes the shameless Romney sycophant Jim Geraghty in an NRO Campaign Spot post titled Louisiana’s Results, Clarified
“Governor Romney and his team have worked hard for over a year in Louisiana to build a strong organization,” Villere said. “The Governor has been to Louisiana more than any other GOP candidate, including one trip specifically to appear at a state party fundraising dinner,” he said. “Governor Romney has shown a commitment to Louisiana that is second to none and the strong support he has here is an indication that Louisiana Republicans are excited about his candidacy,” Villere said […]
Our conclusion: The other candidates had until now to take out Romney. They failed.
We had predicted
(a) that the other candidates would organize around regional strongholds and contest single states
(b) that the other candidates would concert themselves against Romney
(a) and (b) raised the costs of Romney’s operations tremendously. But the other candidates could never concert or coordinate their efforts against Romney with the intensity or consistency necessary to stop him.
The task of stopping Romney now passes to the Democrats.
“BEDFORD, N.H. — Republican Mitt Romney, a businessman-turned-politician, will take more direct control of his presidential campaign message after failing to win either the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary, a top adviser said Tuesday,” writes someone, we know not who as we could not find a name, for the Seattle Times in an article titled Advisor: Romney to assume bigger role—that is, in is his own campaign. What was Romney’s role before? Was it secondary?
Romney himself pledged a long fight for the GOP nomination. He held out his second-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, with a victory in Wyoming wedged between, as testimony to his 50-state strategy.
“There have been three races so far. I’ve gotten two silvers and one gold — thank you, Wyoming,” Romney said in a Spartan seven-minute address conceding the race.
A Romney intimate, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting the candidate, said the campaign was “going to take the shackles off, have him be less measured” […]
Did Romney fail his campaign?
Did Romney’s campaign fail Romney?
The Romney intimate (RI) suggests that the one shackled the other. Now the two are decoupled. For Romney, according to the RI, victory follows emancipation, emancipation from Romney’s own campaign. As is always the case with Romney, Romney’s real struggle is with Romney.
The question turns to MI. The issue? Whether a decision for Sen. McCain or Gov. Huckabee in MI will mean the end of the Romney campaign. The end of the Romney campaign would be a victory for Romney the person according to the RI; recall: Romney’s campaign had shackled Romney and subjected the poor befuddled CEO to two humiliating defeats in two separate contests. But a defeat for Romney in MI would be a defeat for Romney the candidate according to waivering Romney sycophant Jim Geraghty of the formerly conservative National Review, our least favorite Blog for Mitt.
[…] “When you’re self-financing, you can buy yourself a lot of second chances,” writes Geraghty in a Campaign Spot post titled Sorry, Hannity, I Maintain Michigan Is Make-or-Break For Romney
And yes, Romney is leading the delegate count. But is the plan to gather the most delegates by finishing in second place in enough states that award delegates proportionally?
Nota: Romney leads in the delegate count if and only if you ignore the decision for Gov. Huckabee in IA. Romney estimates his delegates as 15 against Gov. Huckabee’s 2. ABC News.com, however, estimates Gov. Huckabee at 31 delagates to Romney’s 19. Jake Tapper writes that the Romney campaign “just pretend[s] like Iowa did not happen.” “I hope,” concludes Tapper, that “Mr. Romney was better with the numbers when he was at Bain.”
Back to Geraghty:
Where’s [Romney] going to win? I realize that after last night, we need to be cautious in putting our faith in polls, but for Romney, South Carolina’s not looking that great. Mid-December polls put him in pretty tough shape in Florida, and the second-place finisher in that state walks away with nada*. He’s nowhere in Pennsylvania. He’s not set to win New Jersey. You figure Rudy walks away with winner-take-all New York and Connecticut. (Although maybe Lieberman could help McCain there.)
At some point, Mitt Romney’s got to go out and win a hotly-contested state. Wyoming is nice, but it’s not decisive. He’s got to show that when you throw him into a hard-fought, no-quarter-given-or-asked political fight, he can come out on top […]
The make-or-break-in-MI theme is an emerging fixed point in the discussion of Romney’s fitness as a candidate. Here would be the counterpoint, provided by Ross Douthat in a theatlantic.com blog burst titled Mitt Romney’s Long March
Romney loses NH, MI, and SC. […] But heading into Florida and Super Tuesday [Romney]’ll still have plenty of money to spend [especially his own]- as much if not more than his rivals – and with Thompson gone he’ll be the only “Reagan conservative” in the race. Neither the Huckabee nor the McCain campaigns are exactly organizational juggernauts, even if the money spigot opens for McCain after New Hampshire, and both candidates have what in a different year would be disqualifying weaknesses. Why shouldn’t Romney stay in the race? If McCain stalls out around 30-35 percent in New Hampshire, arguably the best of all political environments for his candidacy, why shouldn’t the Romney campaign assume that he can be beaten further down the road, in the same way that Bush outlasted him in 2000?
True, this sort of trench warfare would be bad for GOP unity, and might even result in a brokered convention. But why should Romney care about uniting the party behind McCain or Huckabee? They both hate him like poison, and he presumably returns the sentiment: Why shouldn’t he make life as difficult for them as he possibly can?
And true, in this scenario Romney would be essentially adopting Rudy Giuliani’s much-derided “long march” strategy – but perhaps with a better chance of success […]
Our conclusion: Douthat’s Long March was Romney’s plan all along—Romney’s early state von Schlieffen plan was only ever bad science fiction—and, suckers that we are, we took Romney at his word. The only problem—a problem for us and not for Romney: Romney’s Long March requires the incremental dismantling of the GOP—its institutions and coalitions—in detail, and by means of grim attrition. This will leave Romney in a unique position come September, October, going into November. He will have the nomination of a national party without the national party. But as Douthat asks, why should Romney care?
“Ha-ha! Boy, that Rudy Giuliani, what a loser! Boy, did his strategy backfire! The man’s an afterthought! Barely got fourth place, barely ahead of Ron Paul, not expected to be much of a player in Michigan, not expected to be a player in South Carolina,” writes writes Jim Geraghty in a Campaign Spot blog burst titled Meanwhile, Down in Florida …
… he’s going to have to be desperate, and hope that in Florida he can… he can…
…he can, uh, keep his lead in Florida. Where he’s up, 24 percent to 19 percent for Huckabee, 19 percent for McCain, 13 percent for Romney, 8 percent for Thompson.
Where there are 57 delegates, winner take all; 114 delegates if the RNC doesn’t enforce the penalty.
Yuh-huh. We predicted all this—precisely this—weeks and weeks ago.
- Chris Cillizza provides further evidence against the success of the Romney von Schlieffln plan
- Lunquist mistakes Romney for Kim Jong Il—claims former NYC mayor Giuliani already beaten
- Romney’s early state strategy; an investigation
- Romney’s early state strategy—an addendum
“I’m told the exit polls indicate voters didn’t like Mitt Romney’s ads, thought he went too negative,” writes Jim Geraghty in a Campaign Spot blog burst titled It’s called for McCain, which must have been terribly painful for Geraghty what with his fawning and obsequious devotion to Romney
New Hampshire didn’t have the “play nice” attitude that Iowa had, but I wonder if Romney stood out a little too much with his contrast ads, compared to everyone else […]
Um, that may be part of it, but it’s a little more complicated than that:
Rasmussen Reports: Romney has the least core support, and the most core opposition of all the leading candidates, Republican or Democrat—these findings predict the sudden and fierce backlash against Romney’s negative attacks on other candidates
“After today, Rush Limbaugh is in reruns until January 3, the day of the Iowa caucuses,” writes sniveling, belly-crawling Romney sycophant Jim Geraghty for the formerly conservative NRO and proud Blog for Mitt in a Campaign Spot post titled The Rush Fallout for Huckabee: Fatal, or Missing the Target?
… Can a guy who’s been slammed as hard as Mike Huckabee has by Rush Limbaugh, the most popular conservative radio talk show host in the country, go on to win the Iowa caucuses? Anybody think Rush will have dropped this issue by the third of January?
My instinct is to say, “no way, a thumbs down from Rush is fatal,” but a guy on another campaign cautions me. “An Iowa pastor who has been talking up Huckabee isn’t going to change his mind because Rush Limbaugh doesn’t like him.” He points out that a pastors and religous leaders deal with people who fall short of their ideals all the time; hearing that Mike Huckabee was too merciful in dealing with Wayne Dumond is not going to be a dealbreaker for them. They’ll probably go, no pun intended, “there but for the grace of God go I” …
I hate to burst Boy Geraghty’s troubled bubble but Rush Limbaugh—a voice carried by Clear Channel, recently acquired by Romney’s own Bain Capital—is not the only voice on their airwaves of Iowa.
… “We’ve been holding this post for a couple days while we got our thoughts in order on it,” writes CC in a Caucus Cooler post titled WHO vs. Mitt Romney—What it means
One of the biggest buzz items around Iowa the past few days has been Jan Mickelson absolutely eviscerating Mitt Romney on the radio for the past 2 days. We’ve received more emails about this than every other issue combined. On top of that, Steve Deace has made obliterating Romney (and Rudy and McCain) his personal mission for the past umpteen weeks. In this post we’ll discuss what does this mean as it relates to the Iowa caucuses? In the next one, we’ll look at whether or not it is fair.
The fact is this hurts Mitt in a major way. Jan Mickelson has the biggest microphone in the state. His show can be heard in most of Iowa’s 99 counties and the listeners in large part are the same people who attend the caucuses. So 2 weeks from caucus night for him to use that platform to take on Romney has major implications. Unlike Deace (who is a Huckabeeite), Mickelson hasn’t endorsed a Romney opponent. At times he’s been critical of all the major contenders for the nomination. That is about the only positive spin Camp Romney can put on this situation. Looking back at 2006, you can see the damage Steve Deace did in splintering the GOP base, with his attacks on Jim Nussle. Mickelsons audience is exponentially larger than Deace’s, so you cannot understate the impact it will have on the Romney campaign … etc.
Our prediction—base on no other data than our reading of trends in the various reportage—Romney loses both Iowa and New Hampshire.
The market correction that we predicted is hot upon us. Besides: Romney, as we predicted, has been forced to go heatedly negative in 2 states on 2 fronts. Romney’s icy-cold personality and ultra-high negatives will not support a single negative message campaign, let alone 2. Note how both Sen. McCain and Gov. Huckabee delight in Romney’s baleful attentions and laugh off his every angry shriek and misleading screed.
“Your friendly neighborhood campaign spot correspondent, yesterday: ‘This reminds me of Romney’s constant touting of that state police program regarding illegal immigration as an accomplishment, even though his successor, Democrat Deval Patrick, rescinded it before it went into effect'”—writes Jim Geraghty in an NRO Campaign Spot post titled Team Romney Objects; I Object to Their Objection
Each time Romney cites it, I’m muttering to anyone in earshot, why are you doing this? Why?”
Romney campaign helper-money Kevin Madden then issues a hair-splitting instance of casuistry that Geraghty calls an “objection,” the text of which Geraghty provides etc., etc.
Yet again the Romneys get into a spitting contest with friend and ally, Jim Geraghty.
Note to the Romneys: the man is trying to help you. Please believe us: you need all the help you can get.
“Referring to his willingness to hold talks with hostile states, despite his skepticism that dictators will negotiate in good faith, Romney says, ‘Like H. Ross Perot used to say, “I’m all ears,”‘” writes the laconic Jim Geraghty in a Campaign Spot text-burst titled Romney’s Second Reference to Ross Perot in One Appearance
Others—as well as we ourselves—have noted the parallels between
Perot, the folksy and diminutive engineer who wanted to apply principles of problem solving familiar to engineers to Washington
Romney, the equity sector candidate, who wants to apply principles of problem solving familiar to capital managers to Washington etc., etc.
We have also noted the grandiosity, the narcissism, and the sense of messianic purpose that the two figures share(d).
We have also noted how similarly the two have organized and funded their campaigns.
We have also noted how Romney, like Perot before him, is rapidly evolving from a serious candidate into a spoiler, one whose purpose is to deny the Republicans a victory.
What interests us is that there is now evidence that Romney himself is pondering these things in his small, dark, cold, diamond-hard heart.
Madonna Lebling, in a Washington Post article titled Report to Show Romney Fortune’s Bigger Role:
… Romney’s candidacy has quietly morphed into one of the nation’s first hybrid campaigns for a major-party presidential nomination: one that is neither a traditional bid built on individual donations nor a self-funded effort such as those launched by billionaires Steve Forbes and Ross Perot …
Gilad Dotan, PhD, in a <Who is Willard Milton Romney> post titled Romney: GOP for sale; says US$20,000,000.00 is the price for a top-tier position:
… Romney has funded, staffed and organized his campaign akin to an independent candidate, e.g. Ross Perot. He operates largely independently of GOP sources of funding, organization, and support …
Jonathan Singer in a web log post titled Is Mitt Romney Running out of Money?
… Romney campaign isn’t exactly running a traditional campaign — seldom have we seen a presidential candidate, outside of a Ross Perot or a Steve Forbes, self-fund to the extent that Romney has …
“Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics believes that John McCain beat Mitt Romney in their fight this weekend over which candidate is a “real Republican,” writes the tame and tedious Jim Geraghty in an NRO Campaign Spot post titled Would Romney be better off running as ‘Mr. Fix-it?’
An adviser to one of Romney’s rivals told me this morning, as we were discussing the “Real Republican” fight of the weekend, that he doesn’t understand the Romney strategy: “I’m not a huge fan of what Romney did in Massachusetts, but it was successful enough to be the foundation of a his message: I’m Mr. Fix-It, I’m the the can-do, get-it-done governor” … etc., etc.
Our response: Snarf! Guffaw!—shouldn’t Romney try to fix his ailing campaign before he tries to sell himself as the fixer of nations? We will refuse to believe that Romney is anything other than completely incompetent until we hear him articulate a clear, compelling, and unequivocal message consistent with his life and values.
- Rubens on Romney: “Beware Candidates Trying to Purchase a Conservative Label”—NH Republicans “ought to heed the attacks” by other GOPers on Romney “by remembering the the last time a wealthy businessman spent millions of his own money in a campaign to re-define himself as a conservative”
- Berry: “to Mitt Romney, politics is just another product”