“Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has to smile since he’s up in Iowa by 23 points over rival and national front runner Rudy Giuliani in the battle for their party’s nomination” reports the entire Reuters Staff in a dispatch titled Romney tries to lower Iowa expectations

But publicly he is trying to play down expectations that he has to win given the amount of time and money he has poured into the early voting state.

Well, duh. Even a Romney staffer can see that Romney has opened up a salient, the classic profile of high-vulnerability. Here is what we wrote elsewhere on this very issue:

Giuliani does not need to win Iowa, New Hampshire, or Michigan. Here—we argue–is why:

(a) Romney’s much-publicized massive spending in the early states has set up conditions such that any outcome other than a total blow-out in Romney’s favor will be interpreted as a non-victory or even a defeat.

(b) Team Romney is a famously low-effiency, low-ROI campaign. It is therefore vulnerable to the sudden leaps of under-funded and under-organized but high-efficiency, high-ROI campaigns, e.g. Huckabee’s rise has pushed Romney to fifth place in the national polls.

(c) Because of (a) and (b), and because Team Romney’s numbers have already peaked in the early primary states, even a marginal intervention by any one of the other campaigns—not just Giuliani’s—could offset or even deny Romney a victory in any one, or even all of his early primary states. In other words: for any of the other candidates to come in a close second in any of the early primary states would be interpreted as a disaster for Team Romney.

(3) This is consonant with Giuliani’s high-efficiency, high-ROI campaign; he is effectively using the other campaigns to pin down and exhaust a hapless Romney at no cost to his own operation.

Call it Romney’s Iowa-New Hampshire Salient. On a map a salient looks like progress—like forward motion. On the ground, however …

Also see: Romney poised to fail in Iowa no matter what the outcome

yours &c.
dr. g.d.

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  1. 1 Romney poised to fail in Iowa no matter what the outcome (ii)—Romney’s massive spending using his own money has denied Romney the perception of a clean win on fair and equal terms « who is willard milton romney?

    […] See related: Romney poised to fail in Iowa no matter what the outcome (ii)—Romney’s Iowa-New Hampshire salien… […]

  2. 2 Romney poised to fail in Iowa no matter what the outcome (iii)—Romney’s massive spending using his own money has denied Romney the perception of a clean win on fair and equal terms « who is willard milton romney?

    […] See related: Romney poised to fail in Iowa no matter what the outcome (ii)—Romney’s Iowa-New Hampshire salien… […]




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